Most articles on 3D printing have focused on the creative opportunities afforded by the revolutionary technology. Others have pointed out its darker prospects such as being able to print firearms in one’s home. One thing’s for certain; 3D printing is here to stay and the technology will get better and better over time though there are some who are convinced it is nothing but a passing fancy that is doomed to failure or obscurity like 3D TV and 3D movies.
The purpose of this article is to briefly discuss the disruptive economic effects of the technology. History lends credence to the fact that every revolutionary technology usually renders other established industries obsolete. The digital music player and mp3s continues to reduce sales of the music CD market. The advent of ebooks had pretty much done the same thing to physical books. Email has caused a reduction in the use of postal services. The photo film manufacturing and development industries were done in by the advent of the digital photography. Remember Kodak, Agfa and Jessops. So which industries are threatened by 3D printing?
Dry goods manufacturers
How? 3D printing will eventually become fast enough so that we’ll be able to print our own clothes. The legitimate method will involve paying for and downloading the template from the designer’s web site and then simply printing them at home. The illegal way will involve pirating those template files. I reckon that knock offs will eventually cease to be recognisable.
Hardware stores
Hardware stores will also see declining sales as 3D printing improves. If your faucet gets broken, all you need to do is print another one. You might not even to buy a template as there will surely be some free generic templates/designs. Of course, depending on your DIY skills, you might still require the services of a plumber for its installation.
Artisans (Potters and Sculptors)
Potters and sculptors also stand to be put out of a job by 3D printing. Already, manufacturers are using 3D printing to produce their prototypes and clay models. However, I envisage that some people will maintain that hand-made is better.
Spare sparts manufacturers & dealers
Vehicle spare parts will eventually also be 3D printed thereby cutting out the actual manufacturers, stockists and retailers. The retailers are the middlemen and they will be cut out; out of the transaction and out of a job.
Shipping and Courier Services
Courier companies too will be adversely affected. Consider the clothes and faucet examples above. There is no shipping involved. I could simply purchase some clothes from the site of a designer in France and immediately have them printed at home. No shipping time, no shipping costs. As the capabilities of 3D printing improves, more goods and products will be manufactured printed at home.
Specialist dealers
Eventually, circuit boards too will become printable. This will bring an end to specialist stores that stock parts for old and outdated product models. You can be sure that manufacturers (or should that be producers) will no doubt cash in on the elimination of the middlemen (couriers and retailers) by charging a premium for their goods/templates.
The Government
One category of people that will truly be adversely affected as 3D printing becomes mainstream is the government. Actually, all governments; by way of lost revenue from customs. As we all begin to print our clothes, shoes, car parts and several other items at home or at specialist printing services, people wouldn’t have a need to have goods shipped and therefore won’t have to pay import and export duties and other attendant levies. Just like the shipping and courier companies, governments can expect to realise less and lesser revenue from customs as 3D printing becomes more capable and widespread. One other problem for the government will be increased difficulty and newfound challenges in checkmating smuggling as these items will no longer be physically present at the borders and checkpoints. Contraband in particular will be prove to be very notorious.
The Survivors
There are some professionals and artisans that will continue to flourish in the midst of widespread 3D printing. They are the photographers, painters, bespoke suit tailors and cobblers. The tailors and cobblers might of course still use 3D printing to produce their end products but their skill(s) will always be in demand.
One industry that will benefit from 3D printing will be the manufacturers of the 3D printers themselves. That is, until we start printing the 3D printers as well.
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