The Phones in the Crystal Ball

This is a look into the future. More particularly, the not too distant future of flagship smartphones. Over the course of mobile phone history, high-end features have usually made their debut on flagships; flagships of the major players like HTC and Samsung. The LG Optimus 2X was the first phone with a dual-core processor. The Samsung Galaxy S2 was the first phone to ship with 1GB of RAM. The first phone to ship with a screen larger than 4 inches was the HTC HD2 with its 4.3 inch screen, unless you choose to call the Dell Streak a phone. The first phone with a 720p screen resolution (1280 x 720) was the Samsung Galaxy Nexus, unless you also choose to regard the Samsung Galaxy Note as a phone.

Here in the present, the main feature exclusive to the flagships is a 720p screen resolution and this is a common denominator of the current crop like the Samsung Galaxy S3, the HTC One X and the LG Optimus G. It follows then that the next frontier for flagship phones will be incorporating a screen capable of full 1080p HD. Normally, we would have expected to see these new phones in May 2013. But this time around, the first phones with 1080p screens are coming from a very unusual crop of manufacturers. With the sole exception of HTC’s Butterfly, the other phones are the Oppo Find 5, the ZTE Nubia Z5, and the Pantech Vega IM-A860S. While the Butterfly and the Find 5 have gone on sale, both the Z5 and the Vega have imminent release dates. So where does this leave phones like the Galaxy S4 and the next iPhone? In the lurch. Huawei is also making a tablet-phone to compete with the Galaxy Note 2. It is worthy to note that Oppo and Huawei are planning to sell the aforementioned phones in the US as well. While some will scoff at Oppo’s stateside plan as grandiose, I must point out that they are no longer obscure Chinese companies. The public is becoming receptive to their products and in a good way. They are no longer viewed as cheap Chinese knockoffs. And there is one other thing: all the flagship phones are essentially the same. This applies to the current generation as well. Other than aesthetics, there is truly no substantive difference between the Galaxy S3, the One X, the Optimus G. They are all quad-core, all have NFC and 720p screens. The difference in their screen sizes is nominal. They are all capable of exactly the same thing. For instance, what is the real world advantage of a car that has 206 brake horse power over another that has just 200? To me, the main advantage of the Galaxy S3 over its peers is its memory card slot. Other than that, they are all the same. And if Samsung’s recent schedule is anything to go by, then we can expect not to see the Galaxy S4 until mid-2013. By that time, there will be already be a healthy choice of 1080p phones on the market. And if it brings nothing new to the table, then its sales might not be as good as that of its predecessors. And though there are reports that the S4 will have an unbreakable screen, I’m not sure that will be enough to tempt buyers over similar offerings from the likes of HTC and Huawei and Oppo. Other rumours say it will have a flexible/bendy screen. While this is a possibility, what we have seen thus far shows that navigating a user interface by bending the screen is just a gimmick because for a new feature to succeed, it must offer a faster or more efficient way of accomplishing a task. As for Apple, it’s really not looking too good. Their next phone will probably be the iPhone 5S and this is just an iPhone 5 with trivial internal upgrades. This is unless the 5S comes sooner or not at all.

So what comes in 2014? Rollable or foldable screens? Perhaps. But as for the screen resolution contest, the game has ended. Everyone is now at the finish line. And the finish line is 1080p (1920 x 1080). There is truly no reason to go above 1080p for any screen below 60 inches much less 10 inch screens because the highest quality content commercially available is BluRay and it maxes out at 1920 x 1080. It is for this reason that I find the resolution of the iPad 3 and the Nexus 10 to be overkill. In other words, it is pointless. There is no commercially available content that has a resolution greater than BluRay. And it will be so for the foreseeable future. 

So from the looks of things, phones like the Galaxy S4 and the next iPhone (or new iPhone) will be very late to the 1080p party. Though I would like to see the S4 have a built in projector, I doubt it will be possible because of the never-ending quest for slimmer phones. One advantage that phones like the Find 5 and the Z5 will have over the competition is price. They will be substantially cheaper. What might hurt their adoption rate is a lack of a robust customer care system that manufacturers like Samsung have and this is something buyers in many countries consider very important. And in countries where phones are sold on contract basis, the will need to convince the networks to stock the phones. But I for one will be very happy to buy an Oppo Find 5 because I know I am not losing anything in terms of performance or capability. It will be just as capable as the flagships from established players. Post 2013, manufacturers will need to come up with new, unique and truly useful features for their flagships because the lines between premium phones and budget/mid-level phones are getting increasingly blurred. 

Update
The Samsung Galaxy S4 has been unveiled and it's just as anticipated. No compelling feature over the Android competition. And rather disappointingly, many of the flagships now have similar styling. It might even be hard to tell them apart from a distance. - The Galaxy S3/S4, HTC One, LG Optimus G Pro, Blackberry Z10 and the iPhone 5/5S)  all look very similar.

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